Sains Malaysiana 53(4)(2024): 953-967

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2024-5304-17

Trend Behavior of Malaysia Consumer Price Index: Evidence from National Database (2003-2022) 

(Trend Tingkah Laku Indeks Harga Pengguna Malaysia: Bukti daripada Pangkalan Data Negara (2003-2022))

NURULKAMAL MASSERAN*, NAZIHAH RUZELAN ‪ & R. NUR-FIRYAL

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia

Received: 15 August 2023/Accepted: 1 March 2024

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a general indicator used to measure price changes over time. The Malaysia CPI is published using a base year of 2010. This study aimed to identify the significant trend behavior in the Malaysia CPI series for the period 2003–2022. The main question of the paper is whether there exists any difference in trends between the main and overall CPI variables? If so, is the difference significant? If so, how strong or weak is the magnitude of its trend? This is analyzed empirically through five statistical analysis methods involving the serial correlation analysis, Mann–Kendall test, Mann–Kendall sequential test, Sen’s-T test, and Sen’s estimator. Overall, we conclude that there is a significant upward trend for 11 of the 13 variables, while two variables, which are Transportation and Communication, showed no significant monotonic trend. The results of this study provide insight into a better understanding of the behavioral trends of the CPI in Malaysia. This study can help policymakers to understand the importance of increasing expenditure into certain sectors in order to have better production and with this implementation, the trend of inflation rate can be better understood.

Keywords: Consumer price index; economic indicator; trend analysis

Abstrak

Indeks Harga Pengguna (CPI) ialah penunjuk umum yang digunakan untuk mengukur perubahan harga dari semasa ke semasa. CPI Malaysia diterbitkan menggunakan tahun asas 2010. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk mengenal pasti tingkah-laku arah aliran yang beerti dalam siri masa CPI Malaysia bagi tempoh 2003–2022. Persoalan utama kajian ini, adakah wujud sebarang perbezaan dalam arah aliran antara pemboleh ubah kumpulan utama dan keseluruhan CPI? Jika ya, adakah perbezaannya beerti? Jika ya, berapa kuat atau lemah magnitud arah alirannya? Ianya dianalisis secara empirik menerusi lima kaedah analisis statistik yang melibatkan analisis korelasi bersiri, ujian Mann–Kendall, ujian jujukan Mann–Kendall, ujian T-Sen dan penganggar Sen. Secara keseluruhan, kami simpulkan bahawa terdapat arah aliran meningkat yang ketara untuk 11 daripada 13 pemboleh ubah, manakala dua pemboleh ubah iaitu pengangkutan dan komunikasi tidak menunjukkan arah aliran ekanada yang ketara. Hasil kajian ini memberi gambaran dan pemahaman yang lebih baik tentang arah aliran tingkah laku CPI di Malaysia. Kajian ini membantu penggubal dasar memahami kepentingan meningkatkan perbelanjaan bagi sektor yang tertentu agar pengeluaran dapat dilaksanakan dengan lebih teratur supaya arah aliran kadar inflasi dapat difahami dengan lebih baik.

Kata kunci: Analisis arah aliran; indeks harga pengguna; penunjuk ekonomi

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*Corresponding author; email: kamalmsn@ukm.edu.my